Saturday, June 20, 2015

Guns are bad, mmkay?

After Sandy Hook I started reading up on gun and murder stats and one very interesting thing jumped out at me while looking at 3 countries that I'd otherwise consider culturally similar. The murder rate in the USA is far higher than in the UK or Australia. The latter two have heavily regulated (minimal) gun ownership, have significantly fewer murders, and the number of murders with guns is almost exactly the difference. In other words, remove the guns, remove the murders. Furthermore, Australia was once very loose with guns (similar to the USA) and then moved to heavy regulation.

Let's start with the intentional homicide rate by country per 100,000 population:
United States: 4.7
Australia: 1.1
United Kingdom: 1.0

Now, let's look at the intentional homicide rate by gun in each country:
United States: 3.6
Australia: 0.1
United Kingdom: 0.04

If we combine these and make a little table, we get:
CountryOverall murder rateGun murder rateNon-gun murder rate
United States4.73.61.1
Australia1.10.11.0
United Kingdom1.00.041.0

The difference disappears, like magic!

A quick search on the effect of Australia's tightening and gun buyback in 1996-7 seem debated (though even basic facts are "debated" on the internet), but per official records, the percent of murders committed by guns is dropping at a decent rate. Granted, it had started dropping well before 1996 (from a peak around 1980). Probably need to do more careful analysis here, but the bottom line is that introducing gun legislation did not lead to a collapse of society or out-of-control murders against the unprotected populace.

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