The Paul Manafort phenomenon

Paul Manafort was in deep trouble, under house arrest and investigation. Then, he decided to try and tamper with witnesses and is in even more trouble now. Why would he do such a thing? He must be very savvy to have made it as far as he has.

I think career criminals often have a risk-taking streak. They would almost have to, to justify all the risk they take to get their reward. This personality trait is just showing up, still: he sees reward in colluding testimony and has the constitution to take it.

Shouldn't he have gotten caught already? Well, no. Criminals come in all levels of capability and all different tolerances for risk. Those who succeed at the best chosen risk-reward scenarios tend to do the best. But, every act carries some odds of failure. A criminal can only fail so many times before they spend their life in prison.

There will be some criminals who aren't particularly good at what they do, but the odds happen to fall in their favor. Just because they've made it far doesn't mean they are great at what they do. 

The Warren Buffett phenomenon

I feel like I've written about this before, but a search of my blog shows no hits for any of the words in the title. No one's reading anyways, so it's cool if I repeat myself.

Is Warren Buffett the greatest investor ever? Many would say so. He certainly has a very long, proven, track record of successful investing. His Berk/A stock has risen from about $7000 a shared in 1990 to $67000 a share in 20 years ago to $287,000 today, easily outpacing the S&P 500 index has gone from $350 to $1000 to $2800 in the same time period.

Does this mean he has the most insight into investments? Not necessarily.
Investment is about taking good risk-reward positions time and time again. It's about assessing the risks and potentials, then acting. However, no one knows the future for sure so some of it is luck in how things unfold. Buffett is almost definitely a very good investor, but he may not be the best. Rather, he's the one for whom the future unfolded just right. And there is always such a person.

Warren Buffett is an illustration of how someone can rise to the top but may not be the best at their craft. This is critically important to remember when luck is involved in success. Being good improves your odds, and someone has to get the best result in a competition. Those two may not be the same.