Friday, June 15, 2018

The Paul Manafort phenomenon

Paul Manafort was in deep trouble, under house arrest and investigation. Then, he decided to try and tamper with witnesses and is in even more trouble now. Why would he do such a thing? He must be very savvy to have made it as far as he has.

I think career criminals often have a risk-taking streak. They would almost have to, to justify all the risk they take to get their reward. This personality trait is just showing up, still: he sees reward in colluding testimony and has the constitution to take it.

Shouldn't he have gotten caught already? Well, no. Criminals come in all levels of capability and all different tolerances for risk. Those who succeed at the best chosen risk-reward scenarios tend to do the best. But, every act carries some odds of failure. A criminal can only fail so many times before they spend their life in prison.

There will be some criminals who aren't particularly good at what they do, but the odds happen to fall in their favor. Just because they've made it far doesn't mean they are great at what they do. 

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